Oil Vulnerability in Melbourne - research project

New data released on the 25th November 2009 by the Institute for Sensible Transport shows dramatic differences in transport and income patterns across Melbourne’s local government areas, with some suburbs likely to be unviable in a carbon constrained future - due to increases in the price of transport fuel.

Combining the latest data on transport behaviour, income and vehicle fuel efficiency, the Institute for Sensible Transport has developed a sophisticated Oil Vulnerability Index covering every local government area in Melbourne.

Our results show residents of outer suburban areas travelled significantly more by car - with those in Cardinia averaging over 200km per week, while those in the City of Melbourne travelling less than 50km per week behind the wheel.

The areas of Melbourne most dependent on the car were also found to have lower average incomes and we are concerned higher fuel prices in the future will have a devastating impact on the economic and social wellbeing of these communities.

By applying CSIRO projections of what petrol might cost in 2018, the report found many outer suburban residents could be spending above 10% of their income (up to 15% in Cardinia) on fuel should their transport behaviour remain unchanged. The CSIRO have estimated petrol could cost up to $8 per litre by 2018.

The converging issues of climate change and oil depletion pose a particular challenge to the fast growing outer suburbs of Melbourne. Our results have significant land use and transport planning implications.

The full report can be downloaded here (PDF, 0.9MB)